Part Three…..Homeowners, Homebuyers (Owner Occupied…)

Part Three…..Homeowners, Homebuyers (Owner Occupied…)

As I said before there are four main parties in any foreclosure – Homeowner, Lender (Bank, Actual Investor), Buyer (Owner Occupied/Investor), Professionals (Mortgage, Realtor, Banker, Asset Manager, Lawyers, etc). Today I will focus on what the first two are thinking, saying, and respond to the most common comments I hear about the market and if it is time to buy or not, and try to offer a way to look at it from a different angle…..

Homeowners – The market today is a Catch 22 or a self fulfilling destiny for many homeowners in my opinion. What incentive does anyone have to try to not allow their home to slip into foreclosure? I mean according to the news isn’t everybody doing it? In actuality less than 2.4% of all loans are in foreclosure, 2.4%!  Let’s run with the herd then. Here are the messages and news I hear over and over…

“2 million more homeowners will file foreclosure the next year” -So!

 “foreclosures are up 30%” – Sure from what level though? I saw one example where a pretty large town had 100 foreclosures last year, and 113 this year and the headline in the paper was something like “Foreclosure Crisis Hits Home, in a Big Way! What this means to you….” Seriously percentages are one thing but how about a little perspective….also are these 30 day lates? Who is reporting Realty Tracker? (They sell that free, publically available information – the names and mortgage information to people by the way.)

Bankruptcy, (well according to every third advertisement on my satellite radio they can fix it so you don’t lose anything and in 3 years I am clear, especially if I am incorporated in Nevada.)

“I am upside down”, so why do I care?

 “My mortgage lender took advantage of me by giving me this really low rate so I could buy this really big house, and well I can’t keep it here you go”. But I am taking the refrigerator, stove, dishwasher, sink, and busting up the walls just for good measure.

“The fed didn’t give me any bailout, why not?” That’s my favorite. What happened to doing everything you could to keep your home? Sure there are times when it is unavoidable, but with all of the options today I think many are simply using it as a way out, everyone wants the free handouts anymore. We all should have a fat savings account, a paid up life insurance policy, and  a new vehicle in a few years- courtesy of Uncle Sam anyway right?….(foreshadowing see below)

Homebuyers – Why would I buy that house that is in good shape, and ready to move into when I can buy a foreclosure? Sure it will need a lot of work, new appliances, carpet, walls patched, but it’s a good deal right? Sure if you have the cash to fix it up. Try getting an FHA loan on that….

I can’t get a loan. – Ever tried? Go here to let me know I will refer you to someone who may be able to help.

I don’t have any money to put down. – 3.5% that is the magic number!

I am going to wait. – WHY!??!

“My Dad said it’s a bad time to buy.” – This makes me want to scream! Now I understand the concept, and I respect it. But when a person gets to the age, and has the ability to even think of buying a home, isn’t it about time to make your own decisions? Or at least consult with someone who can help, and is qualified? If I had a nickel for every piece of “advice” my Dad, and all of the Dad’s of every person I know and that have bought homes have gave, I wouldn’t need to be here writing this right now. I could bail us all out. – Dad’s, (and I am one) are always over-protective and want to have the final say. Have them call me, I will show them why it makes perfect sense to buy now….

I’m only paying $800 a month rent. – Wonder how much house that could pay for? Answer $140,000 See for yourself here…

With news every day it seems of another $800 BILLION Dollars being plucked from the taxpayer money tree, rates dropped like a rock. Call me crazy but with a 5.375% interest rate, record inventory, and a typically slow time of year for sellers seems like a good time to buy a house….

Gotta Go……..Tomorrow Homebuyers-Investors, Lenders/Banks, and Professionals

TFBE #2: Back on Track

OK back on track today. But first I must make one quick rambling thought about foreclosures. I can’t figure out these lenders. They don’t want these properties, right? They have quit foreclosing in many cases, which in effect allows a person to live for free in the home with NO incentive to maintain it, or they allow them to sit empty and deteriorate which costs them money. They buy them back at the court sale 95% of the time, bidding against all other purchasers, (there are many reasons I know and that is for a later post), they will not sell them to investors for the price they are willing to pay, owner occupied buyers can’t get financing on them or they will not qualify, they will not lend to non-owner occupied buyers, what is the deal. Are they waiting for some miracle? At what point do they just cut their losses and go on? I know it’s a huge problem, and the solutions are overwhelming, but pick a solution or a plan and go with it.

Here is my solution, free of charge. Allow investors to either assume the old mortgages, for a set number of years like 10, up to say a set number of properties like 5, or loan them the money to purchase them at a good rate, with the option to lock them in for a set rate for a set time period. Then they can rent the property out to cover their payments, fix it up and sell it, or wait until the market turns around and do whatever they want. ( I will volunteer to br the first to take my 5). The government could even offer tax credits and or rent subsidies to help cover any negative cash flow or guarantee rent for qualified renters. Either way it accomplishes several things. 1. It gets it off the bad loan books, and in theory will reduce inventory 2. It allows the investor to maintain, repair, improve the property which keeps the long term value of it more stable, and to grow their wealth in a business they are already in anyway 3. It gives the old owners and people who can’t afford or qualify to buy a home a chance to have a place to live, 4. It will cost us, make no mistake we are paying the price for it anyway, a lot less than the alternatives. Sure it’s not perfect, some will cry it is making the rich richer, and there will no doubt be some problems with it, but I think it makes sense. If anyone has a better idea let me know…..

Don’t Believe the Hype. It IS a Good Time to Buy…

Don’t listen to the hype! I have been to many parts of the country where the market is terrible, houses are not selling period. Foreclosures are everywhere and neighborhoods and condo developments look like bights on the community. Not here. Now is the market “slower” that the last few years, yes. Are home being foreclosed and sitting vacant there? Yes of course. But according to the real data it can be much, much worse, see the link at the end of this rant. If I were a home buyer looking to move up, relocate, or invest in a few homes that are potential deals (which I do and am still), now is the time. Let’s put it, the current real estate market, in simpler to think about terms. Think back to a couple years ago, everyone was buying everything at higher prices. Now not as many people can, or seem to want to be buying homes. Now pretend you are getting ready to go shopping for clothes. You have to have clothes to wear. The last time I checked since the beginning of time there were a few basic necessities for living – Food and Water, Shelter, Fire, and Clothing. Not sure if that is scientifically correct but to me I could see being able to survive with this for at least a while, or until football season and we have to throw in a TV. OK so pretend you are going to shop for clothing, food is too easy, and I may be too biased on the shelter issue. You have a choice go to Wal-Mart and get off brand pants, shirt, socks, shoes, and underwear and they cost you a total of $87. Can you live with that? Yes. Is there anything wrong with off brand Wal-Mart clothes? No, I have a pair of Wal-Mart nylon running pants right now. Now let’s say you went to the mailbox before leaving the house and had a coupon for 15% off the already big sale price for somewhere like Ralph Lauren or Neiman Marcus outlet store. (I now they don’t do coupons probably but stay with me.) You go look around for a while and find you can buy the a pair of pants, a shirt, shoes, socks, and some fancy underwear for $100 not much more than Wal-Mart Which would most people really choose?  Of course the nicer stuff, go ahead be truthful. So if in today’s market you can buy the same house today you wanted, and for some reason did not buy 3 years ago for the same price or less; why wouldn’t you? Sure there are more hurdles to cross with financing and credit issues true. But really there were many people who shouldn’t have been able to buy a home the last few years anyway, but due to national economic policies enacted in the late 90’s, they could, and did. Which is the reason for part of the mess we are in, and the politicians can blame whomever they want, but it’s true. But ask almost any person that has any sense, or people like Warren Buffett who have amassed enormous fortunes with this type of thinking, it makes sense to buy things on sale. Buy when no one else is buying, not when everyone is buying. That is the time to sell when the market is up. Now can anyone predict the market accurately? NO! Does it take a little bit of gusto to step in buy when the news media tells you the world is going to collapse in a black hole created by Wall Street greed that will over take the created by the CERN particle collider? YES. Would any sane person just go buy a house somewhere just to be buying it without doing a little research as to what markets are strong and are closer to “normal”? NO. So if you want to do the research on the Lexington, KY market check this link out.

 

http://www.neighborhoodbluegrass.com/default.asp_Q_f_E_cpg_A_pg_E_LexingtonMarketStats

 

Ty Brown

Broker/Realtor

Neighborhood Realty – Bluegrass

Lexington, KY

www.NeighborhoodBluegrass.com

Foreclosure – it must be a magic word.

….to Ty’s BIG Foreclosure BLOG Event

 

It is amazing to me (there goes my Freudian Keith Whitley fascination again) that by simply placing the word or words “foreclosure”, or” short sale, REO, Bank Owned, etc.”, into a property description gets so much attention these days. Of my listings the only properties that get any action lately have been the ones that are, or are on the way to being foreclosures, or for rent. Who has conditioned the buying public to look for these words? But is this really good or bad? I say both depending on who it is in relation to in the transaction, as there are 4 key stakeholders in every foreclosure type transaction. (Five if you count the American taxpayer who may ultimately be the one left holding the bag, which may be good or bad but that is an entire different series in and of itsself.)

 But to really explore the question and give an answer I think your must look at both sides of the issue, and what are the real underlying issues.

 

So for the next week or two I am going to focus on the following series of questions and answers, and offer my famous theory on each of them, and I may even get into my favorite topic the psychology behind the current market. In the next several posts I will outline the parties involved and the process, identify the good and bad for all four parties, offer my theory on the whole mess, show why buying a foreclosure can be good but not always, show whey there are opportunities with listings that are not foreclosures out there, and most importantly offer strategies for each party to capitalize in the market today and how to find the real deals. Plus anything else I think of along the way I feel is worth rambling about.

 

The one catch is this, you only get the strategy to capitalize one by email so you either have to subscribe to my BLOG, its FREE, or email me directly, as it is not something I want to give to just anyone, as it really is my strategy moving forward. Fair enough? See you Monday for the first installment of Ty’s BIG Foreclosure BLOG event, if not sooner…..http://tybrown.wordpress.com/

 

Remember I am never too busy for a referral…so send this to someone you know that may be in the market for real estate now or in the future.

 

Day One T.B.F.E.

Foreclosure

OK the time is here is the much anticipated, highly sought after Ty’s Foreclosure BLOG Extravaganza. Can you sense the sarcasm? Just in time for Turkey Day, and you should add this to your items to give thanks for Thursday, a BLOG that is a total but entertaining waste of time, unless you are serious about capitalizing on investment opportunities, or helping people capitalize on them in this market. As the preacher at my church said Sunday keep in mind it could always be worse, and we should remember what we still have to be thankful for… After a weekend to think about it, and a sick day yesterday, I have decided to make this extravaganza a little more specific the Lexington, KY market, and slant it heavily to my opinion and experiences. I also plan to highlight the most common scenarios, and add a few not so common points to consider. Keep in mind I do not claim to know everything, and I did very little research, I do not have time or the attention span to do so. So there is no telling where this will go but it will be beneficial and fun I hope, if not just don’t read it I will not cry, nor will I know. If you disagree with me on any topic let me know, and I will tell you why I am right. If you’re right I will also admit it, and I encourage all comments. Also just when I have it figured out well there goes another $800 Billion dollars…………………..

Tomorrow you will get…..

Four main parties in any foreclosure – Homeowner, Lender, Buyer/Investor, Professionals (Mortgage, Realtor, Banker, Asset Manager, Lawyers, etc)

Day 3: the Missing Link

 

The Investor in Today’s Market…

Sure it’s daunting out there today. Especially any theory that has a missing link, like this one, is tough to prove. What is the missing link in today’s recovery? The real estate investor. The real estate investor is a vital part of any upcoming recovery in the housing and real estate market. Without them, us, I don’t think it will be possible to recover. It’s no shame to admit that you are waiting on the sidelines. It’s hard not to do so when everywhere you look there is someone who knows the market is going to fall another 10% because Jethrow from so-and-so’s office said so last weekend at the yard sale. But sit back and think about it. When is the best time to buy anything? When is the best time to try something new? When is the best time to get into the market? Right; when it’s down, on sale, not working, when there is the right opportunity in front of you it usually is not wearing a big “Hello my name is: The Right Opportunity” sticker. (In my experience anyone with a name tag on is trying to sell you something anyway-think about it.) But if you do see one it’s up to you if you think that is weird or not, but in my opinion it will be a little harder to spot than that, even if it is just as obvious. Most people wouldn’t take any opportunity seriously that rolled in with a name tag on, but sometimes it is just that close and visible to you. It just takes you a little bit of commitment to convince yourself to say Hi and get to know it.
What is a real estate investor to do these days? What is the definition of a real estate investor anyway? Who are they? Where are they? What are they looking for? The answers are easy, every person that buys a property is an investor, whether it is for personal use or not. The traditional investors are not out there, at least not in force. Those who are are doing it behind the scenes quietly. But they all have one thing in common; they are looking for a “Deal”. The issue is what defines a deal? Is it a discount off of the listing price? If so who sets a fair listing price? What is the value? Is it a house that is below market value? Again what is Market Value these days? Is it a home that needs repairs? Is it a property with good rental cash flow? Cap Rate? Expense Coverage Ratios? Fully leased property? Wholesale? Refurbished? Good part of Town? Close to Campus? Close to Beach?…
Yes to all of these, and no to all of these. The answer is it depends, no one really knows these days. All that can be for certain is that in 10 years anyone who does not take advantage of the possibilities and opportunities out there right now, will be the same ones who ten years ago said gold was too high at $350 an ounce, and that gas will never go over $2.00 a gallon, or below $4.00 a gallon last year, said you can’t go wrong investing in Enron, or had a friend buying JDS Uniphase at $83 a share and would double his money in a week, said Google would never catch on…you know the type. The type that says it is never the right time or that his brother-in-law’s boss who-knows Chuck Norris’ friend who works for Warren Buffett thinks it is a bad idea. That type.
So what is the opportunity out there for today’s investor? The opportunity today is choice. Let’s face it good or bad the fact is there are thousands and thousands of properties out there that are empty, distressed, upside down, in foreclosure or soon to be in foreclosure. The banks and lenders are not sure what to d and what not to do. I think they are just waiting for more bailout money. (Apparently the big loan modification rescue plan is not working. The issue is just too big! Just yesterday there was an interview by Matt Lauer on the Today show of all places about how a financial newspaper columnist “quasi-genius” got wrapped up in it and is losing his house. The banks told him repeatedly they were too busy to work with him to fix the mess he was in with his loan I read that one large bank that had billions of dollars of tax bailout money, has modified 1 loan to date. That’s right 1! It wouldn’t matter if they did do it the time it would take to process it would negate half of them anyway. ) They are simply waiting, for what I am not sure, but at some point they will unload thousands of new properties on to the foreclosure market.
Checking the local commissioner sale website an average of 40 homes a week are being auctioned off for all of the upcoming sales listed. That is great except 95% of those are being purchased by the plaintiff aka the bank that has the mortgage from them, which adds to their REO inventory, which is precisely the business they do not want to be in, the property management business. All the time these and the others they already have taken back are just sitting, usually empty, or not being cared for if they are occupied. No matter how nice the neighborhood and how well they are watched, an empty house is a deteriorating house, period. Now the banks own properties that if they were to be sold even at a discount cannot be financed by the typical homebuyer as repairs are needed, as they are not in good shape they will not pass the minimum FHA guidelines in most cases. If they do the buyers will usually pass them up for others that need less work and are probably priced the same because the distressed sales are bringing their value down. This does not include the abandoned properties that are not yet in foreclosure or are simply vacant or empty and not distressed.
A new plan needs to be tried here, this is not working! Someone, The Investor, will have to step in and be a middle man and have the ability to get these properties at a wholesale type price, repair and refurbish them, then pass them to the end homeowner, or be able to use them as rental property to those that cannot or do not want to buy. The problem is they cannot get the money to do so! What about an incentive for these guys, to make feasible the purchase a responsible amount of investment property, by qualified educated buyers, and give them incentive and or subsidies to make it worth their risk and effort and allow them to have the opportunity to make a profit in the future. This does not mean the “Investor” needs to buy 5, 10 or 20 properties. I am simply stating if you own your own home already; why not look to buy a rental property in your neighborhood, or a duplex somewhere. Small time responsible investing is investing all the same. Do so responsibly, at your comfort level. This would quickly lower inventory, create affordable housing alternatives, and allow homes that otherwise could not be purchased by first time home owners, or low income home owners be available. Want specifics of my plan? Tune in tomorrow…….Day 4 for “The Plan”.

Day Two: What is Driving Today’s Market?

What is driving today’s market?

The short answer is nothing really. It’s like an empty car in neutral rolling down a hill. Yes it will roll, and it will go until it either runs off the road or hits something big enough to stop it. Why? How?  Gravity.  No not a tractor beam (Borrowed Stimulus Money) sent from the mother ship (Gov’t) pulling it downhill, its gravity it has always been here.

Compare that visual to today’s burgeoning recovery  (the car) which is starting to roll in many areas of the country the movement can be attributed to a few things.

1. The natural cycle (The gravity) for this time of year, the spring and summer naturally bring more activity, a good amount of stored up demand. (Which is in my opinion mostly due to the unfavorable, inaccurate, over generalized media coverage of the last year.)

2. Attractive first time home buyer incentives i.e. $8,000 tax credit, record levels of inventory, lower prices and increased affordability. The big if is the supposed increasing availability of mortgage financing available. (The road with a big 90 degree turn coming up)

While these are all nice, and depending on which party’s media machine you listen to, there are signs of optimism in the economy and overall direction of the housing market. There are signs of a bottoming out of the housing fall, an increased level of activity and consumer confidence in housing all over the place.

But for a true long term recovery there are a few items missing and a few time bombs (The Wall) lurking in the near future that could derail any recovery unless they are addressed; one of the most immediate being the $8,000 first time buyer tax incentive sunset of December 2009, not that this can continue indefinitely however.  At some point virtually every person with the ability to purchase a home as a first time buyer is going to do so.  Sure there will always be new people entering the market, but the level to drive a recovery will, has, level off and the effect will be less noticeable,  they cannot drive the market for ever.  Also the job market and banks starting to lend again are big deals, but those are obvious and yesterday’s news.

So what do I think is needed next? (Who can jump in our empty rolling car and steer us around that corner and away from that wall?) I think a new incentive should be introduced to spur the missing link in the housing recovery, the real estate investor.  Not the jacked-up-on-HGTV flipping-manic-fly-by-night-know-it-all-jack-of-all-trades-price-war-bidding over exuberant type of the early to mid 00’s. But the professionals, and the rational small time investor looking to take advantage of an opportunity, and to make sound quality purchases of an asset that can never be worthless.* (As I have stated many times before, if you find a piece of property that is truly worth $0, tell me and I will buy it! Chernobyl excluded).  

Tomorrow Day 3…The Investor the Missing Link

Today’s Market – Tomorrow’s Market

I doubt there is anyone out there than can dispute that the home buying and selling process, whether new or existing, is a vital and important aspect of any economy. The velocity of money which accompanies each transaction is enormous. With so many different beneficiaries from builders, suppliers, real estate agents, insurance agents and companies, bankers, investors, lenders,  inspectors, repairmen, roofers, local, state, federal tax coffers, attorneys,, ….the list can go on for a long time I think you get the point. Each property sale creates enormous income for many, people, who in turn take that money and spend it elsewhere, who take that and spend it, who take that…

What are the few key issues that are driving today’s market?  Also what are the few missing pieces that are needed to bring the market back to a true recovery, or a true long term positive, sustainable healthy level?

 

That is what I am going to explore the next few days, and present my plan and my ideas. I would like your ideas too, so chime in as you please and I will use your input in the plan, good or bad. I will then present the final plan anyone that will listen, to see if anything happens….at worst we can look back and say we tried!

 

Tomorrow…What is driving today’s market?

FINALLY! A Positive Online Real Estate Article

I finally found it, a positive real estate article online. It is pretty generic and basically what we say everyday, but none-the-less…. http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/10-mistakes-first-time-home-buyers-make.html

Old BLOG Post Found

I found this old BLOG post that I had totally forgot about from my first attempt at establishing a BLOG. See how you think I fared in my predictions…is that how to spell fared?

Friday, January 13, 2006

 

2006 What Will This Year Hold?

I will ask you and others to tell me your opinion on what this year will hold for Real Estate in Lexington or anywhere for that matter. I will get other in the field to coment also.

My Opinion: Prices will cool off slightly, homes will be on the market a little longer than the last few years as fewer buyers are in the market thanks to media over hyping the bubble and owners will all try to sell to realize some of the gains of the past couple of years before it pops. Which equals more homes on the market and more choices for the buyers. Appreciation will return to normal and there will be more move up buyers this year as they now realize they can afford to own a home, and not as many first time buyers as interest rates will rise slightly and be volitile throughout 2006. New construction will continue to be in demand but builders will not be able to get any price they want this year as they have in the past, existing home owners will remodel to make their homes more attractive and adding pressure to new homes, this leveling prices. The growing market is retiring baby boomers who are looking for the older home, with modern ammenities, not the new homes that younger buyers have demanded the past couple of years. Quality will be the name of the game I think for the next few years and forward. I look for a slight rise in foreclosures, more “investor” buyers for rental property, and there are way too many condo projects currently to support that recent boom, so I think they will cool this year if they ever really took off to begin with. The area I think will be the next big opportunity, well you’ll have to help me on that what do you think?

Today’s Buyer aka Bargain Shoppers

Don’t take this title the wrong way, in my investment and investor services side of the business we are ALWAYS looking for a deal. Rule #1 One of my keys to successful real estate investing is you make your profit when you buy, not when you sell, so buying it right is paramount. However I think the key word in the phrase “Buying it Right” is right, and right is relative. What is right? I think the better question is…What is right for you?  Ask any buyer now and you will probably hear, “I want a good deal, and from what I hear that mean a foreclosure or a short sale.” Obviously that is true in some regards, but definitely not always. Let me present an actual scenarios and outcome, and offer two better scenarios. Both are based on actual deals that I have participated in within the last 3 months.

Scenario #1:

A home that is the perfect starter home, first time buyer price range, that is in move in condition. This home was purchased by the owner a little over a year ago, and at that time got a good deal, about $8,000 under value at the time. His personal situation changed and now he wants to sell it, but does not have to, nor is he under any financial stress to. Believe it or not, not everyone selling today is! So the home is listed at the current market value based on comparable sales in the area. A few months go by and only 1 lowball offer, several interested parties but only 1 on paper. The offer is 13% below listing price. I had a chance to talk to the potential buyers and they gave me this rationalization…” The market is down, 15-20% (which in my town it is not by the way but according to the nightly news and Yahoo real estate it is apparently everywhere), they paid $X for it last year, the market is down so he would be crazy not to take this deal.” “Also we think he should pay our closing cost, pay all the taxes for next year, and you should cut half of your commission since we don’t want a Realtor to help us, we know what we are doing.” OK. Guess what I said?! (Those of you who know me can guess probably). Anyway since I am always doing what is in the best interest for the parties I represent, and I must by law, I presented the offer to my seller. Guess what he said? I quote, “Tell him that marijuana is illegal in Kentucky!” I guess he though the guy was stoned? Anyway as I analyze this I want to make three points. 1. I do not blame the potential buyers for trying. 2. I don’t blame my sellers for rejecting. and 3. I think this illustrates the toughest issue today in real estate, a lack of realistic educated decisions which are tainted by a desperate-inaccurate-biased-media. (Oops did I say it again?). They were making their offer on inaccurate market conditions, and based solely on the price the seller paid for it, or what it was worth. This rationalization makes no sense, because it penalizes the current owner for getting a deal in the past, and if that same method is used when they want to sell it then they will lose money. It is absolutely an uneducated and informed decision, by unrealistic uninformed buyers.

Better scenario #1:

Suppose the same situation had happened but each side, particularly the buyer, had accurate realistic information beforehand, and was making offers to fill their need in a realistic manner, based on realistic information and expectations. This involves “Ty’s Theory of Relativity (my apologies to Einstein, this only took me a few minutes and it took him years to prove) UUB + US = NGDA$ or Unrealistic Uneducated Buyers + Unrealistic Uneducated Sellers = No Good Deal for Anyone. (i.e. $), in which the opposite creates the opposite effect =A Good Deal for Everyone!” I know that is a deep thought…..

So suppose the buyers looked at the decision this way…Knowing they want to buy a home, they want to take advantage of the lowest interest rates in years, tax credits for first time buyers, and want to be in that price range, and on that end of town, and that school district. Which in this case are all true. Suppose they had done their homework with accurate information on the market and home that fit their needs currently on the market. Wonder where they could get that, maybe here? Suppose they had looked at all of the homes that fit their needs in the area, and suppose they sit down and do a comparison and determine which home fits their needs best, then did research to determine what the actual value of that home is and make an offer based on that. When I say actual value that is the actual value or total picture of the entire purchase not just purchase price. Actual value takes into account the overall picture, nit simply purchase price. To illustrate this I want to use another example, this time I made the mistake of not looking at the overall picture on a home I purchased for resale, and I simply looked at the purchase price not the overall deal. If I had followed my own advice I would likely have made another decision. I simply saw a home I could purchase at approximately 40% of the after repair value, and though how could I go wrong? Well after putting in an amount equal to the purchase price in repairs, I was left with a home that I had to rent instead of sell, because I had no room for profit when based on the comparable market. So that leaves me to my final point, and point that I feel is missing in today’s market. The idea that simply getting a home for a relative low price, no matter what that idea is based on hopefully more than the past purchase price that the potential buyers were using above, is not a good idea. They must look at the overall picture. Suppose they find a foreclosure or short sale that is 20% below the last purchase price and buy it. Is that a basis for a good deal? True they got it 20% below the last purchase price, but who is to say that the lat owner didn’t pay 40% too much? Not an unlikely scenario these days! Did they factor in the cost of getting this home in perfect condition? Carpet, paint, blinds, lighting, flooring, fence, roof, HVAC, .etc? Probably not. Well if not suddenly this great deal turns out to be a not so great deal.  

To illustrate that point I will offer one last real case scenario. A home that is 7 years old, in a great neighborhood, that is in the higher end of the first time buyer market price range. We spent significant time preparing the home to sell, and pricing the home in its actual value range. Move in ready perfect condition, and priced fairly. Two offers in 4 days, sold in 5. The buyers made an informed decision, their Realtor did a great job she knew the market, the true value, and they in turn made an informed decision, and a realistic offer was accepted and everyone got a fair good deal. That means everyone made some money, buyers, sellers, me, and their agent to. I would love to have more of those deals, so I am again posting my theory, this time it is the good side of the equation…. UUB / US = NGDA$ or Unrealistic Uneducated Buyers/Unrealistic Uneducated Sellers = No Good Deal for Anyone. (i.e. $)

IRB / IRS = RGDA$ or Informed Realistic Buyers + Informed Realistic Sellers = Really Good Deal for All. (i.e. $)

Most importantly, in the words of Waylon and Willie, Realtors Don’t Let Your Customers Grow up to Be undeucated, uninformed Buyers or Sellers….and people please be an educated buyer, not a bargain shopper, stick to the yard sales for that…there are plenty of good deals to be had that are not foreclosures, fixer uppers, or short sales.

I Thought I had Found a Positive Article

While surfing the Internet today, I though I had finally found something positive, something promising regarding the economy and the recovery we are all hoping for to come soon. But like all “news” today that would have been too positive, too optimistic, too realistic???? Realistic?? Either this guy is living on a different planet, or the author of this article pulled some really old quotes from old Rich Hughes…maybe from late 2007?

Bernanke: Recession may end in ‘09; Stocks climb

By TIM PARADIS, AP Business Writer Tim Paradis, Ap Business Writer – 15 mins ago

 

Related Quotes

Symbol	Price	Change
HD	20.55	+1.84
JPM	20.46	+0.95
M	8.34	+0.94
ODP	1.28	-0.17
TGT	28.47	+0.04

 AP – Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, …

NEW YORK – Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has reassured Wall Street by telling Congress the recession might end this year.

In his semiannual report to the Senate Banking Committee, Bernanke predicted the economy is likely to keep contracting in the first six months of 2009. But he also said “there is a reasonable prospect” the recession will end this year. He warned that a recovery will require getting credit and financial markets to operate normally. – good and pretty much “duh!”….

While Bernanke’s assessment of the economy helped ease some pressure on the market, it also came after days of heavy selling that left the Dow Jones industrial averageand the Standard & Poor’s 500 index near 12-year lows, so a bounce in stocks wasn’t a surprise. Stocks made cheaper by the selloff attracted bargain-hunting traders. Also, some, better-than-expected quarterly numbers from Home Depot Inc. helped cool some anxiety about the economy. – note 12 year low…..

…..then, where did this come from? What world is this guy living in anyway?

….Rich Hughes, co-president of Portfolio Management Consultants in Los Angeles, said the stock market’s rallies are likely to be based on hope or on rebounds from selloffs. He contends Wall Street still hasn’t seen the wrenching decline that is often needed to scare investors from the market and set the ground for a lasting recovery. “The underlying fundamentals just aren’t there to support anything that’s sustainable right now,” he said. “We haven’t seen the capitulation that you’d want to see before you’d get thoroughly enthused.”

WHAT!!? Decline, what the hell has the last 6 months been? The last 2 years? Is this guy for real? Capitulation? Where are the investors then if they are not scared off? Who knows what to think anymore….with articles like this no one ever will.

Sure Way to Get Busy

I have found one of the most amazing phenomenon in the real estate profession, well really two, but the most surefire one is this….If you want to have one of those busy-everything to hit you all at once-people come out of the wood works and need your time and advice-want to see houses you have not shown in months-or that you owe anything to to want paid asap-and ring your phone all day long-Days….. is to plan to go out of town for a few days. As I am typing this I am on the phone with another person wanting to rent a house from me, (that is the third way to get the phone ringing off the hook, but that is for another day). It is amazing. Yesterday and the day before, nothing unusual. Sure the calls are picking up like they normally do this time of year, and yes it has been very slow and gloomy the last few months. I DO NOT WANT TO SOUND AS IF I AM COMPLAINING ABOUT CALLS OR ACTIVITY, as I am very grateful for the business and all of the calls and especially my clients, past, present, and future. I just want to know they know that I am going to try to take a few days off? Does someone have my phone bugged, is it a big conspiracy? It has gone past the point of coincidence in my opinion. I am thinking back of all of my past vacations and extended days off over the past 6 years (as relative as a day off might be in this business anyway), and it happens every time. Every time, every single time. So I say if your slow and need to drum up some business plan to take a few days off. See if that helps. I will let you know how it turns out…..

 —oh yeah the second phenomenon is that no one wants to buy or rent a house until you get a contract on it, then everyone all of a sudden wants it…..that and my rental story in the next post, if I make it through the next few days without being committed to a mental institution, or more likely the ski resort emergency hospital that is…..